2017 1Q and 2Q,Sees Decline in Hillsborough/Polk Environmental Horticulture Production Output

I just ran the numbers for the estimated output of the environmental horticulture industry value for the first and second quarter of 2017 and was surprised to find a decline in value for both Hillsborough and Polk Counties.  With all the construction that is being done around the area, I was sure that the numbers would have increased.  What is a bit surprising, is that in the 2016 estimate, annual output was down about 8.4% in Hills. Co. and almost 9% in Polk County.  The beginning of this year we are looking at about a 2% decline in Hills. Co. and about a 3% decline in Polk County compared to 2016, at an annualized rate.  This will erase all the gains we have seen post-recession for the industry in these two counties.
There are some assumptions with these estimates: labor productivity is staying about the same for the years and is calculated at 37.5% of total expenses and about half of the industry doesn’t report labor costs to the state. These numbers are also before the hurricane season and it will be interesting to see what the annual numbers turn out to be in six months’ time.
According to the DPI list of registered nurseries in 2017 (which can be anything from a back yard to a full blown wholesale operation), we are down about 50 in Hillsborough to 350 (-12.5%) and 30 in Polk to 207 (-11.9%).