Compost Use Saves Money on Potting Soil

Container potting soil might not be your most expensive input, but according to national industry statistics, if you produce ornamental plants in containers, it is probably the second biggest expense after labor.  What if you could save 13% to 25% on potting media costs for each container produced?  What if you could save irrigation and fertilizer as well, with a simple change?  Those are some of the results that we found with a simple addition of an input and changing the container media.   

Over the last few years, we have been working on adding horticultural-grade compost to regular container media to "stretch" the mix and reduce peat usage. We have used combinations of potting media that we blended, composed of compost and pine bark as well as replaced potting media with percentages of compost and compared it to the growth of the normal container media mix for Central Florida. In both cases, compost matched up.

When we blended a mix of 70:30 and 60:40 pine bark:compost and compared it to the standard grower mix (¾” composted pine bark (50%), Florida peat (40%), and hardwood (10%), and grew crapemyrtles, we found that the one gallons all grew the same; no statistical differences in height and width (Fig 1).

Fig 1. Crapemyrtles grown in one-gallon containers with grower standard soil, 70:30 and 60:40 pine bark:compost mixes from left to right.

We then stepped up those one-gallon container plants and replanted them into three-gallon containers and continued to grow them in the same soils as they started.  When those plants were ready to harvest, height and width were measured, there were no differences in height, but compost soils were slightly wider than the standard with 30% compost being the widest plants. 

In our demonstrations of replacing a portion of potting soil with 20% or 40% compost we found similar results with ixora, crapemyrtles, New Guinea impatiens, and a variety of vinca (another variety did worse than control).  All plants grew similarly.  Amazingly, when compost was substituted, plants needed 20-25% less water and 61% less fertilizer. The media costs were reduced by about 25% or about $0.23 per #3 container. The key takeaway was that irrigation had to adjust lower to accommodate a more water holding media.

The utilization of compost is a great way to reduce production costs; irrigation run times and increase economic and natural resource sustainability.  Growers will need to trial varieties and change how they water to gain savings.  Some plants may not do well in compost.  Also, growers will need to use high-grade, mature compost from a reputable source (ours was donated by Veransa, Seffner) to avoid pH or nutrient concerns.  It also seems that 20-30% compost is a safe proportion to use, but again testing for your plants and nursery will influence that amount.

For full information on this topic the article will appear soon in the proceedings of the Florida State Horticultural Society.   

Clean Waterways Act and What Does That Mean as a Producer

Here is an important regulatory update if you are an agricultural producer.

Attention farmers and ranchers. We want to give you a heads-up about a recent law change associated with the Florida Department of Agricultural and Consumer Services (FDACS) best management practices (BMP) program.  On June 30th, Governor Ron DeSantis signed Senate Bill (SB) 712, “The Clean Waterways Act” sponsored by Sen. Debbie Mayfield (Rep. Indian River/Brevard) and Rep. Bobby Payne (Rep. Palatka).

The Clean Waterways Act passed the 2020 Florida Legislature with bipartisan support. The bill modifies the FDACS BMP Program Implementation Verification requirements and carries a wide range of water quality protection provisions aimed at minimizing the impact of known sources of nutrient pollution.  This new legislation will impact growers who have operations within basin management action plan (BMAP) areas, and growers enrolled in the FDACS BMP program and who are implementing BMPs and applying nutrients.

The Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) tests waterbodies throughout the state and has designated many of them to be impaired below state standards. To improve water quality in these systems, FDEP, along with many stakeholders, has established BMAPs statewide that describe the sources of impairment and plans for addressing impairments to meet water quality standards.

To address water quality impairments, FDEP and stakeholders are implementing strategies to reach BMAP nutrient or bacteria reduction goals. As part of these strategies, regulatory agencies are utilizing environmental permitting to meet their goals while other entities, including counties and local governments that contribute non-point sources of pollution to waterbodies, use other methods to accomplish BMAP objectives. Agriculture is using FDACS-adopted BMPs to address water quality goals of the BMAPs.

FDACS agricultural BMPs have been extensively used statewide for about two decades. Farmers and ranchers throughout the state have signed Notices of Intent to Implement BMPs (NOIs) with FDACS Office of Agricultural Water Policy (OAWP) and are presumed to be in compliance with state water quality regulations if they are properly implementing the BMPs identified in the NOI.

The Clean Waterways Act states the following:  “In order to attain assurance of implementation of BMPs, at least every 2 years, FDACS  shall perform onsite inspections of each agricultural producer that enrolls in a best management practice to ensure that such practice is being properly implemented. Such verification will include a collection and review of the best management practice documentation from the previous 2 years required by rules adopted including, but not limited to, nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer application records, which must be collected and retained by FDACS. FDACS is required to initially prioritize the inspection of agricultural producers located in the basin management action plans for Lake Okeechobee, the Indian River Lagoon, the Caloosahatchee River and Estuary, and Silver Springs.”

If you have any questions or issues about enrolling in the FDACS BMP program, please do not hesitate to call your Extension Agent, who can direct you to the appropriate FDACS representative to assist you. You may also call a UF/IFAS BMP Implementation Team member or FDACS representative for any other questions.

Measuring pH and EC in Large Ornamental Containers Video

It can be quite difficult to check fertility and acidity (EC and pH) levels in large, potted woody ornamentals periodically, to monitor what is going on inside the container.  Conditions will change over time; your fertilizer levels will decrease, the pH will change due to irrigation and fertilizer release.

We did a field demonstration to show growers four different ways that you can use to check the fertility levels in a large container.  We demonstrated a soil lysimeter, a pour-thru method, a leaching fraction method, and a two-to-one (water:soil) saturated media extract.

Some methods may be easier than others depending upon your nursery constraints such as labor, materials, and time.  The key to successfully using this kind of data is to use a method that is exactly repeatable every time.  This way the data can be compared over time and across plants.  A grower will also need to determine which method might be more suitable depending upon factors such as how the fertilizer is incorporated in the container (top-dressed versus sub-dressed) or how irrigation is applied.

I have posted a video looking at the methods of checking pH and EC regularly.  You can watch it here.  pH and EC BMP Video.  We are currently doing research to compare and contrast the different methods and when the research work is completed, we will show how these methods compare with each other and how variable they can be when using this data to make management decisions.

Woody Ornamental Production Field Day Registration Now Open

Make plans to attend UF Extension's Woody Ornamental Production Field Day on May 31st, 2018 at the UF Gulf Coast Research and Education Center.  We have another great line-up of education and field demonstrations prepared for you.  Topics will include, chemical updates from chemical industry reps, pre-emergent herbicide trials on ageratum and tropical plants, updates from a plastic mulch trial, comparison of pH and EC collection methods for large container production and more!  The final agenda is now complete. The times will be 9:00 - 4:00.  Registration will include a lunch and CEUs (1 Core and 2.5 PRVT/O&T).  You can register for $55.00 now at this link to reserve your spot.
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2018-woody-ornamental-production-field-day-tickets-45941613603

Here is the agenda for the event.
Classroom
8:30       Registration, set-up, conversations over snacks
9:00       Welcome, Introduction, Orientation 5 min.  (Mr. Shawn Steed)
9:05       Plastic Mulch Update 15 min.  (Mr. Shawn Steed)

Field Demonstration
9:25         Bio-Mulch for Containers 15 min. (Dr. Chris Marble)
9:40         Irrigation Using Leaching Fraction for Large Containers 20 min.  (Dr. Tom Yeager)
10:00 Nutrient/pH Monitoring in Large Containers 20 min (Mr. Shawn Steed)
10:20 Ageratum Control in Nursery Containers 20 min.  (Drs. Nathan Boyd/Chris Marble)

Classroom
10:45 Chemical Updates 30 min. (Various reps)
11:15 SWFWMD Permitting Process 40 min. (SWFWMD Staff)

11:55 Vendor Visits / Lunch

12:40 OSHA Fit Test 50 min.  (Mr. William Tomlin, USF Health)
13:30 Alternative containers 20 min.  (Dr. Andrew Koeser)
13:50 Break
13:55 Tropical Plant Herbicide Options 20 min.  (Dr. Nathan Boyd)
14:15 DOT Rules and Regulations update 40 min. (Tpr. Austin Daniels)
15:55 Summary/Evaluation (Mr. Shawn Steed)
16:00 Adjourn

We thank our sponsors, Diamond R, Southern Ag, Mosaic, FNGLA Tampa Chapter, BASF, Syngenta, SWFWMD, USF Health, USDA Southern SARE for making this event possible!

Profitability: Energy and Fertilizer Costs

Energy and fertilizer (which is positively correlated with energy) costs are slowly rising again and will have implications to your bottom line.  Here is the third video episode of Profit Margins with Dr. Charlie Hall.  See what he has to say about the near-term outlook on energy costs.   https://youtu.be/dTdrRPRnPEI

Evening Social and Fertilizer Trial/Demonstration

Join us for a cook out at the Gulf Coast Research and Education Center in Balm and for a look at the trial UF/IFAS Extension ran with six different controlled-release fertilizers.  We planted liners to a three gallon pot a year ago and took data at eight months and a year.  Some of you may have seen the trial beginnings at our last woody production field day.  We looked at plant growth and chlorophyll levels to help you make better fertilizer decisions.  Grab a bite to eat, hang out and chat with fellow growers, and see how your fertilizer compares.  

Event date:  March 30, 2017, 5:30 pm.  
Location:  14625 Co Rd 672, Wimauma, FL 33598.  
Cost:  Free.
Meal:  Provided by Bruce Rumph, Mid-Florida Nursery
Drinks:  Provided by Shawn Steed, UF/IFAS Extension Hillsborough County       

Vegetation in Runoff Ditches Reduce Contaminates

Many growers view weeds in their irrigation ditches as a problem to be solved.  Mowing or spraying the weeds to keep ditches clean and obstruction free is the general practice.  You obviously want water to clear out of an area or the ditches wouldn't be there in the first place.  Here is an article that just might change your mind and possibly even save you some money in ditch vegetation management and create a cleaner environment. 

In an article by the Agriculture Research Service from the USDA,  entitled "Drainage Ditch Research Reveals Opportunities for Cleaning Up Runoff" (published in the January 2013 issue of Agricultural Research magazine), research was conducted by Matt Moore on contaminates of atrazine, lambda-cyhalothrin and their movement in irrigation ditches.  In one study he found that after one hour, ditch vegetation in a 160 foot section of ditch had removed 61% of the atrazine and 87% of the lambda-cyhalothrin to non-toxic levels at the end of the ditch.  In another study of lambda-cyhalothrin and bifenthrin, (both pyrethroid pesticides).  In only 3 hours 96 percent of the lambda-cyhalothrin and 99 percent of the bifenthrin were captured by the ditch vegetation.

This has also been proven for nutrients such as phosphorous and nitrogen.  Ditch shape and the vegetation that grows there will make a difference in what gets absorbed.  The amount of time in the ditch and the length of the ditch will be factors to consider as well. 

To read more about some of the findings on this and other studies about pesticides and nutrients moving from fields into ditches you can click on the full article here.    http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/AR/archive/jan13/ditch0113.htm

Shaken Not Stirred

Converting between liquid and dry formulation fertilizers can sometimes be problematic in the field. When recommendations give a rate of N (Nitrogen) per acre in dry formulations it might be difficult to figure out how much liquid fertilizer you would need to obtain the same rate of fertilizer. Here is a new publication from the Horticulture Science Department at UF/IFAS that will help to clarify converting from dry fertilizer recommendations into liquid.  Just click on this link to read more http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/hs1200 

Wood Chips Remove Nitrogen From Water

Here is an interesting article I came across from the USDA Agricultural Research Service.  In the Midwest scientists are looking at using woodchips to remove excess nitrogen from water that runs off agricultural fields.  They are finding that woodchips placed in drainage tiles provide a great home for denitrifying bacteria which removed a large portion of unused nitrogen that would find its way into surface waters and eventually into the Mississippi waterway and out into the Gulf of Mexico.   There might be a use for this in those ditches that return water to your farm pond.  Here is the the rest of the article.   

http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/AR/archive/feb12/nitrate0212.htm

Nickle, Not Just for Piggy Banks

Introducing Nickel – The Newest Essential Element for Plants


Posted on July 5, 2011 by Dave

IFAS Extension recently published a publication of interest to growers on the plant micronutrient nickel. This 5 page publication begins with an introduction to the 17th essential plant nutrient. It then explains the function of nickel in plants and what symptoms to look for when plants are deficient.

The publication explains that nickel is required by the urease enzyme in plants for the efficient conversion of urea to ammonia. When nickel is at an insufficient level in the plant, urea is not converted as efficiently and toxicity may develop.

Uptake, transport, bio-transport and soil testing are covered, as well as how to fertilize to avoid nickel deficiency. The publication is here: http://bit.ly/lv6jaF

Money for BMP's

As an Extension Agent attending a training on the cost of removing nitrogen and phosphorous from water once it is leaving the farm, I would implore any producers to first monitor your fertilizer program and water quality. To measure is to know. You need to know what you are doing in terms of fertilizer before you can affect change to the system. You also don't want to be spending any more money that you absolutely have to in order to grow your plants. Secondly, I would also implore you to sign up for the BMPs if you haven't already done so. Eventually you will you need to prove you are not adversely affecting the water leaving your farm or you can sign up for the notice of intent to implement the best management practices for nursery crops and fall within the presumption of compliance. The process is fairly painless and quick to do. If the whole thing sounds scary don't take my word for it. Please give me a ring and I can get you in contact with producers that have gone through the process and let you speak with them directly.

Here is a notice from SWFWMD about some of their programs to help producers do a better job of regulating their irrigation quantities that quality.

Implementation Cost Share Programs:
1. SWFWMD Mini-FARMS Program
a. Fiscal Year 2010 – 2011, $14, 700 left for growers interested in implementing water quality improvement or water conservation projects
i. Maximum Reimbursement is $5,000 or 75% of the project total cost
ii. Growers have to meet eligibility requirements and complete a simple application
iii. Growers have to be located within the SWFWMD and have less than 100 acres
b. Fiscal Year 2011 – 2012, next round of funding available in October
i. Growers can be put on list for next years’ funding

Mini-FARMS Contact Information

FDACS Office of Agricultural Water Policy
Noel Marton, Environmental Specialist III(Polk, Manatee, Hardee, Highlands, Sarasota, Desoto, and Charlotte counties)
Office: (941) 377-3722 Ext. 6516
Fax: (941) 373-7660 noel.marton@freshfromflorida.com

BMP Implementation Cost Share Programs:
FDACS Office of Agricultural Water Policy
Jessica McCoy Stempien, Environmental Specialist II (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Lee, Hernando, Sumter, Citrus, and Marion counties)
Office: (813) 985-7481 Ext. 2125
Fax: (813) 987-6746
jessicalea.stempien@freshfromflorida.com


Mini-FARMS Eligible Cost Share Practices List
Soil Moisture Probes / Tensiometers
Soil Testing to Determine Fertilizer Recommendations
Water Table Observation Wells
Weather Station with ET Measurement
Data Logger/Telemetry Unit/Power Source/Software
Culverts with Riser Board Structures
EC / Salinity Measuring Devices or Equivalent Technologies
Irrigation Pumps, Controls, Filtration, Infrastructure
Totalizing Flow Meters for Systems Not Required to Meter for WMD
Closed-Pipeline Water Delivery/Tailwater Recovery
Water Quality Test Kit
Petiole Sap Test
Soil PH Testing Kit
Permanent Fertigation Facility
Wetland Exclusion Fencing/Temporary Fencing for Cow/Calf and Equine Operations
Other Approved Water Conservation Projects


BMP Implementation Cost Share Programs Continued:
2. Hillsborough County Soil and Water Conservation District Mini-FARMS Program
a. $13,500 left until June 30th for growers interested in implementing water quality improvement or water conservation projects
i. Maximum Reimbursement is $5,000 or 75% of the project total cost
ii. Growers have to meet eligibility requirements and complete a simple application
iii. Projects are for a 100 acres or less
3. Natural Resources Conservation Service’s Agricultural Water Enhancement Program (AWEP)
a. For growers located in the SWFWMD’s Dover/Plant City Water Use Caution Area
i. Cost share program for tailwater recovery, surface water pump upgrades, irrigation efficiency improvements, laser leveling, etc.
ii. Growers must register with the Farm Service Agency
iii. Deadline to enroll is mid March
iv. If interested please contact, Jennifer Abbey, Hillsborough County District Conservationist at 813-752-1474 ext 3

BMP Development/Adoption:
Water Quality BMPs for Florida Equine Operations Pending Adoption
Water Quality and Quantity BMPs for FL Specialty Fruit and Nut Operations Pending Adoption
Notice of Rule Development sent to the capital
Manuals can be found at http://www.floridaagwaterpolicy.com/BestManagementPractices.html.

Open Letter to Agricultural Producers about EPA Numeric Nutrient Criteria

Here is an open letter from

the Commissioner of Agriculture Charles Bronson and Micheal Sole the Secretary of the Florida Department of Environmental Protection encouraging all agricultural producers to sign and implement the Best Management Practices for their respective operations. Just click on the link below to read the letter.

http://www.floridaagwaterpolicy.com/PDF/OpenLetter100608.pdf

The EPA has finalized the levels for nutrients that are allowed in the waterways of Florida in order to meet water body standards of quality and reduce the amount of impaired water bodies in the state. The new standards will go in effect 15 months from now. This will require stakeholders to implement plans and remediate affects of nutrient runoff to waterways. As a producer you will eventually either verify that you are not causing nutrient runoff from your nursery or sign up and follow the FDACS Best Management Practices for Nurseries. This is extremely important that you sign up with the BMPs if you haven't done so already. You can call me to talk about it or Jemy Hinton 813-478-6630. This regulation will have far reaching consequences and as a producer you need to be proactive to minimize risk. Here is more information from an article from Growing Produce http://www.growingproduce.com/news/?storyid=4644 and here is a publication from UF about the entire Nutrient Numeric Criteria regulation entitled, "A Guide to EPA's Proposed Numeric Nutrient Water Quality Criteria for Florida" http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/pdffiles/SS/SS52800.pdf

Slower Growing Plants Help Inherent Defenses

It seems that nursery growers are in losing battle with insect pest and a rapid turn of plant crops. Here are the summaries of two articles I've come across recently.



Plants can either protect themselves or grow fast; but not both.



A recent published article in Science magazine by UC Irvine's Kailen Mooney et. al. came to the research conclusion that when plants have traits to grow fast, they are more prone to attack and need outside help from the attack of pests. The converse is true as well. A plant with slower growing traits favor more protection from insects that feed on them. It seems that faster growing plants are more tasty and preferred by plant eating insects.

Here is a link to a brief from the research from Science Daily: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/100325143051.htm



Reduce fertilizer amount and reduce pest pressure.



This article was in NM Pro, March Issue. It was a summary of the researcher Andrew Chow and his colleagues work. They looked at reducing fertilizer inputs in rose crops and the pest status of introduced two spotted spider mites. They used 100, 50, and 33% of the recommended 15-5-15 Cal-Mag fertilizer and placed the same number of female mites on each plants and then grew them out. Mite egg count was 2 times higher with 100% fertilizer compared to the 50 or 33% fertilizer rate. Flowering shoots and quality was not compromised at the 50% fertility rate. This study showed that reducing fertilizer reduced the pest numbers and had positive monetary savings in sprays, labor, and fertilizer. The complete article was in Journal of Economic Entomology Vol. 102, Issue 5.

My take on these articles would be that if I had some plants that were insect magnets and I didn't need them produced for a market window, I might try to reduce the amount of fertilizer to them. Or even, spread out the production of this plant over the year and reduce the amount of fertilizer so that the slower growing plants would be reaching maturity throughout the year for sales. Then watch to see if the reduction of fertilizer reduced the pests to a non-economic damaging level. If you try this let me know how it works out!

Regulatory meeting

The Farm Bureau of Hillsborough County and IFAS will be hosting a meeting on the latest regulatory information affecting growers. Here is the information.


You are invited to attend a regulatory update meeting where you will have the unique opportunity to hear from and interact with three of the most knowledgeable authorities on water, natural resources and Agricultural Best Management Practices in the state:

Jerry Brooks
Director of Environmental Assessment and Restoration, FDEP,
David Moore
Executive Director, SWFWMD

and Dr. Brian Boman, UF/IFAS BMP Implementation Program

This meeting will be held on November 18, 2009 at 6:30 p.m. at the John Trinkle Bldg (HCC Campus, 1206 N. Park Rd. Plant City, FL
Don’t miss this chance to discuss the EPA numeric standards and their impact to agriculture.
Please RSVP to: Judi Whitson (813)685-9121

Save Water and Money Producing Plants

We had a great TBWG meeting at Riverview Flower Farm. Part of it is seeing the production methods of R.F.F. and the innovation that takes place there. The other part was our guest speaker Dr. Mike Dukes from UF. He spoke about Smart Water Application Technology(SWAT). Part of that is reducing water from a timed application of water and moving to a needs based application of water. Some of the technological advances to reducing this water is by using rain sensors, soil moisture sensors and evapotranspiration controllers. These devices will bypass an irrigation timer if the plants do not need the water (e.g. after a rain event). Dr. Dukes' had two years of research looking at homeowner lawns and these technologies have saved the homeowners from around 40-70% water savings.

One of our own local growers James Reed at Three Pines Tree Farm is using a soil moisture sensor for his irrigation and says even without the grant he received to put it in place, he will have the device paid for in about 14 months from savings on his pump usage. He will also be saving thousands of gallons of water from our aquifer and many pounds of fertilizer will not be wasted or leached into the ground. This technology is really helping James' operation tighten up costs and reduce waste thereby making him more competitive in the marketplace.

If you would like more information about SWAT Dr. Dukes has some information on his website http://www.irrigation.ifas.ufl.edu/

If you would like more information on saving water or getting a grant for your farm to utilize this technology send me an email or give me a call at the extension office.

Palm Workshop

Here is an interesting opportunity for those of you who grow lots of palms. You may want to check this out.

Palm Management in the Florida Landscape

Date: Tuesday, October 27 and Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Time: 7:45 AM – 5:00 PM each day

Location: University of Florida - IFAS
Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center
3205 College Avenue
Davie, FL 33314

Registration Fee: $300, checks only, payable to the “University of Florida”

Reservations/Payment By: October 15, 2009 (or until class fills up)

Enrollment Limit: 40 persons. Enrollment will be limited to 3 persons per company
initially. If space is still available after October 15, this enrollment cap will be lifted.

CEUs applied for: ISA, FNGLA and FDACS (pesticide license)

Topics
(classroom presentations and field trip to palm groves on site)
Ÿ Diagnosing Palm Problems Ÿ Palm Insects
Ÿ Palm Anatomy and Growth Ÿ Palm Diseases
Ÿ Physiological Disorders Ÿ Normal Abnormalities
Ÿ Nutrient Deficiencies Ÿ Fertilizer Formulations
Ÿ Sampling and Leaf Analysis Ÿ Fertilizer Application Techniques
Ÿ Transplant Issues Ÿ Pruning Palms

Instructors:
· Dr. Timothy Broschat, Palm Horticulturist, Nutrition and Fertilization
· Dr. Monica Elliott, Palm Pathologist, Fungal Diseases
· Dr. Robin Giblin-Davis, Palm Entomologist/Nematologist
· Dr. Nigel Harrison, Palm Pathologist, Phytoplasma Diseases

For more information and to reserve your spot for “Palm School”, contact:
Dr. Monica Elliott
e-mail: melliott@ufl.edu
phone: 954/577-6315

El Nino is Back!

I was once having a discussion on climate change with a teacher. He told me, "The weather men can't tell me what is going to happen tomorrow, how do they know what is going to happen in the future with the climate." Now whether you believe this line of reasoning or not is up to you. I do know that climatologists are telling us at this time we should expect a weak to moderate El Nino event this fall that should last into next year. They also caution that it could strengthen in the coming months.

An El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) is a change of the surface temperatures of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. It has been noted back in the 1500's off the coast of Peru. It usually occurs around Christmas time. The event name El Nino or The Boy gets its name from happening in conjunction with the birth of the Christ child at the same time. It is characterised by a warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean around the equator. It causes atmospheric conditions such as pressures and winds to change and can produce dramatic weather phenomena around the world.

What does this mean for what is going to happen in your neck of the woods? It means that El Nino pulls the jet stream down further over the South East. This means that during El Nino years we should experience a wetter than normal fall, a really wet winter, around normal spring, and a dryer summer. Rainfall can exceed 30% more than normal for this event. This would be most noticeable during the months of Jan., Feb., and March with rainfall in the 3 to 5 inches per month in this area. The probability of exceeding 4 inches in Jan. is about 80%. The probability of exceeding 5 inches of rain is 78% and the probability of exceeding 6 inches of rain is over 50%(These estimates are based on the publications below). The temperature for El Nino for this area shows that we can expect to see an average temperature of 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for the fall and winter.

What does this mean for production? I would look at how is a wetter winter going to affect my crops and how would colder temperatures affect what I grow. If you are growing crops for a particular time window you may want to add a little more time to finish. If you are holding plants then you may want to make sure to scout for fungi and diseases more regularly. Also look at your pest complex and see if that will make any differences. Another area to look at is how your fertilizers are going to work during a cold, wet winter. Slow release fertilizers generally will release slower during the colder months and nitrogen and potassium will leach quicker with more rainfall if you are growing outdoors. So this would be a deficit to the grower as well as your plants already growing slower due to weather events. This should be taken into account if you are trying to hit a window of market timing.

Some more information on how El Nino affects agriculture and how this can affect the bottom line can be found at the following publications: "Economic Approach to Valuing Information with Application to Climate Information" http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/FE801.

This publication gives you information on how to use climate data to make decisions for production purposes. http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/AE267, "Climate Forecasts and Decision Making in Agriculture."

Here is a website that tracks the climate and makes predictions and forecasts: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/

I hope this helps with some of your predictions and decision this fall growing season. And if we don't see much of a change in the weather my teacher may be correct in his assumptions about weathermen and climatologists.

Reference: "El Nino, La Nina and Florida's Climate: Effects on Agriculture and Forestry." The Florida consortium. 1999.