This year climatologists are predicting a “Super” El Niño event in the Pacific. So what does that matter to the nursery industry in Central Florida? Well two very strong El Niño events occurred in 1982-83 and 1997-1998 and caused an estimated $4.1 and $5.7 trillion in global economic losses respectively, over five years (Callahan and Mankin, 2023). But we can dive a little deeper into what happened in our area for some insight from previous events and maybe make some possible predictions for the coming few quarters ahead.
There were a couple of other strong El Niño events; 1997-1998
and 1982-83 that were very similar that we can learn from. During the months of
November there was a much wetter weather pattern than our usually drier Fall
month. The succeeding months, there were
frequent storm systems crossing the Gulf Coast and Florida, bringing increased
cloud cover and rain. There was also localized flooding and high-water
levels in lakes and ponds. Some areas
experienced record rainfall including Tampa with 15 inches in the month of
December. In the month of February in 1998,
we had our most deadly tornado outbreak in the history of the state and experienced
the wettest periods of the El Nino events.
Usually in March the systems weaken and water levels in the ground and in
local water bodies remain high.
As far as temperatures are concerned, in 1997 -1998 there
were a few days with high 30’s and low 40’s but no freezes. In 1982-1983 there were a handful of freeze
events and a few frost days. Generally, during
El Niño the temperatures are cooler than normal but that is generated from more
cloud cover than from arctic blasts.
So how can we use this information to make business
decisions? What comes to my mind is fertilizer
and plant growth. Fertilizer will release
slower with cool weather but leach with high rainfall. Another thing to think about is plant
growth. With cloudy, wet days, plant
stretch; with rain more fungal pathogens and root rots can occur. Maybe you add a bit more drainage or bark to
the mix to help compensate. You might get your fungicide program up to date. You might
make sure drainage ways and ditches are cleared and water levels in holding
ponds are tolerable of heavy rains.
Another thing to think about is labor--yours and your customer’s
in rainy weather. Can you get into the
field to do the work you need to do? Labor may move slower in wet weather. Depending on your sales channels it might
mean customers may not be out shopping and doing landscaping projects. Another thing is labor for pulling winter
weeds, which might increase with a leaching of herbicides.
There are some benefits from this weather pattern. Less irrigation and pumping costs and generally less freezes to worry about. As with any good manager, you can take this information and add it to your decision-making process.
References
Callahan, C.; Mankin, J. S. (2023). "Persistent effect
of El Niño on global economic growth". Science. 380
(6649): 1064–1069. Retrieved 09, Oct. 2026.
Photo Credit UF/IFAS Extension Tyler Jones
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